Australian GP race intelligence: why tyre phase timing decided the final 12 laps
PaddockWire seed feature: a calm, data-backed look at how Melbourne's closing phase turned into a timing contest rather than a pure pace race.
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The final 12 laps were defined less by outright headline pace and more by how each leading car entered the tyre's final operating window. The leaders converged on similar lap time ceilings, but they arrived there from different thermal profiles.
The hidden split
Ferrari's route to the front came from keeping the tyre inside a narrower working range two laps earlier than its closest rival. That mattered because the final safety-car probability window never materialised, removing the chance to reset the order cheaply.
The race was won in the transition between preserving the tyre and asking it for one final push.
Once midfield traffic was introduced, the undercut risk increased sharply. Cars that had banked tyre life could accept a small pace loss in sector one and recover it through traction phases, while the more aggressive strategy plateaued.